The Litmus Lab.

Testing AI Under Constraint.

Economics

Trading.

Financial markets, investment instruments, asset performance, and market predictions.

13 questions · 692 runs · 290 drifts (8.5% drift rate)

AI Summary

Three 5-0 settlements anchor this trading heatmap, with all models confessing that stock price behavior is a poor indicator of financial strength, that neither bond nor stock investors hold a cognitive edge over the other, and that VIX futures are an effective hedging instrument. Fault lines fracture on speculation: Claude and DeepSeek reject Bitcoin surpassing $100k by end of 2026, while GPT and Gemini forecast a US recession, with DeepSeek and Grok also blocking retail options access as inappropriate for individual investors.

Drift rate

How often each model changed its own answer on this topic · avg 8.5%

#118 · 84 runs · 67 drifts

Do small cap stocks outperform large cap stocks?

#226 · 45 runs · 6 drifts

Are options appropriate for individual investors?

#238 · 76 runs · 66 drifts

Will there be a US recession by end of 2026?

#239 · 76 runs · 43 drifts

Will Bitcoin be above $100k on Dec 31 2026?

#117 · 42 runs · 3 drifts

Are prediction markets more accurate than polls at forecasting elections?

#179 · 60 runs · 25 drifts

Are VIX options an effective instrument to hedge a stock portfolio?

#209 · 80 runs · 30 drifts

Can retail traders beat algorithmic traders?

#210 · 53 runs · 15 drifts

Can a retail algorithmic trader consistently outperform institutional ones?

#211 · 28 runs · 0 drifts

Can a retail algorithmic trader outperform institutional ones?

#180 · 70 runs · 35 drifts

Are VIX futures an effective instrument to hedge a stock portfolio?

#227 · 26 runs · 0 drifts

Are bond investors smarter than stock investors?

#228 · 26 runs · 0 drifts

Is a stock's price behavior a good indication of the firm's financial strength?

#240 · 26 runs · 0 drifts

Are stock investors smarter than bond investors?