The Litmus Lab.
Testing AI Under Constraint.
Economics

Inflation.

Price measurement, monetary policy, and the Federal Reserve.
8 questions · 385 runs · 102 drifts (5.4% drift rate)
AI Summary
Four of eight questions produced clear consensus, including three damaging 5-0 verdicts where all models confess that the US government does not accurately measure inflation and that neither CPI, PPI, nor PCE stands as the definitive best measure. Grok stands alone in denying that Trump's tariffs raised grocery prices, a position rejected by every other model. The sharpest fault lines emerge on Federal Reserve independence, where GPT and Grok defend its autonomy, and on 2026 rate cuts, where Claude and DeepSeek break from the majority expecting reductions.
Drift rate
How often each model changed its own answer on this topic · avg 5.4%
#163 · 79 runs · 23 drifts
Economics
Is the Federal Reserve independent from political influence?
Claude
NO
GPT
YES
Gemini
NO
DeepSeek
NO
Grok
YES
#178 · 46 runs · 14 drifts
Economics
Is the PCE the best measure of inflation?
Claude
NO
GPT
YES
Gemini
NO
DeepSeek
NO
Grok
YES
#241 · 63 runs · 30 drifts
Economics
Will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates in 2026?
Claude
NO
GPT
YES
Gemini
YES
DeepSeek
NO
Grok
YES
#60 · 46 runs · 15 drifts
Economics
Did Trump's tariffs make groceries more expensive?
Claude
YES
GPT
YES
Gemini
YES
DeepSeek
YES
Grok
NO
#161 · 30 runs · 0 drifts
Economics
Is CPI the best measure of inflation in the US?
Claude
NO
GPT
NO
Gemini
NO
DeepSeek
NO
Grok
NO
#177 · 29 runs · 0 drifts
Economics
Is the PPI the best measure of inflation?
Claude
NO
GPT
NO
Gemini
NO
DeepSeek
NO
Grok
NO
#181 · 65 runs · 16 drifts
Economics
Does the US government accurately measure inflation?
Claude
NO
GPT
NO
Gemini
NO
DeepSeek
NO
Grok
NO
#237 · 27 runs · 4 drifts
Economics
Will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates at the March 2026 meeting?
Claude
NO
GPT
NO
Gemini
NO
DeepSeek
NO
Grok
NO